That is why the oil company Shell has resumed the tradition of developing and presenting long term global scenarios. The new scenarios presented Febr 28 are called «New Lens Scenarios – a shift in perspectives for a world in transition», and can be downloaded here.

«These scenarios show how the choices made by governments, businesses and individuals in the next few years will have a major impact on the way the future unfolds," Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser said in a statement, according to Bloomberg.

The scenarios provide some fascinating ideas and insights in the areas of economics, institutions and social development. Seen from my point of view I find it most astonishing that Royal Dutch Shell, which left the solar market four years ago, now says in one of its two scenarios that solar PV will grow to be the world's largest source of primary production by 2060.

The report draws two different scenarios for developments over the next 50 years:

"Mountains": Natural Gas, Hydrogen

In "Mountains", it is the major nation-states, particularly the United States and China, and the established elites and businesses that largely retain control in society. "The New Gilded Age" is used to describe a development marked by growing inequality, partly caused by the increasing division between those who have the right diplomas and those who have not.Energy demand continues to grow, but growth is slowing faster than expected due to lower economic growth.

In "Mountains" exploitation of Natural Gas is the fastest growing energy source until reserves decline and climate crisis becomes acute in the middle of the century. In 2040, Natural Gas holds the largest share of total primary energy demand, exceeding both oil and coal. The Shale gas revolution spreads from the U.S. to China, India, South Africa, Latin America and even Europe. The gas boom is further reinforced by extraction of Methane Clathrates from the seabed. In power generation Natural Gas replaces Coal on a large scale, and it takes a large share from Oil in the transport sector. The latter occurs first through gas-powered vessels, buses and cars, but primarily by a large-scale development of infrastructure for Hydrogen. Abundant gas resources are used to produce large amounts of Hydrogen, applied via large diffusion of Fuel cells. By 2060, the "Hydrogen-society" is resurrected from the failed "hype of the 1990s, as a "bird Phoenix".

In the "Mountains" scenario production and distribution of energy develop as follows: